An inglorious end to the Liberator as Zimbabwe takes a turn – but will it be for better or worse?

15 November 2017 has gained its place in the annals of Zimbabwe’s history with the end  of 93 year old President Robert Mugabe’s era.

Zimbabweans woke up to news that the Military has moved on President Mugabe in what the Senior Commanders say is not a military coup, but an operation to rid the government of criminals surrounding Mugabe. The criminals are, in this case, senior Ministers working under the so-called Generation 40 (G40) faction led by Mugabe’s wife Grace.

The military takeover was somewhat anticipated but still took the country by surprise, as Mugabe had maintained a tight, if not seemingly fool-proof control of the security sector in Zimbabwe.

This invincibility was lost as Army Commander Constantino Chiwenga held a press conference 13th. November ordering Mugabe to stop attacks on party and military leaders associated with the liberation struggle of the 1970s – a direct response to the dismissal of Mugabe’s longtime confidante and Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Chiwenga’s statement was swiftly countered by the youth wing of the party which chastised him for undermining Mugabe’s authority.

A day later, on 14 November, the ruling ZANU PF party issued a statement threatening to charge Chiwenga with treason. What was seemingly lost to most, was the determination and unity within the military to engage Mugabe in a power struggle. In his press conference Chiwenga was surrounded by close to 90 senior military officers – a demonstration of unity, which Mugabe and ZANU PF choose to ignore.

Fearing a backlash the military quickly organised and took control of the president, his supporters and the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, forcing the TV station to announce that they had taken over the government, even as they maintain the ‘no coup’ line.

The bonds that tied Mugabe and the military – a lust for power and luxurious lifestyles funded by taxpayer – was broken with the succession question as Mugabe choose to side with his wife against his erstwhile comrades.

It was the military that was the power behind Mugabe as he lost repeatedly to the opposition including in 2008, but simply raised the middle finger to the opposition backed by the military.

The Zimbabwe military is keen to avoid confrontation with others in the region, especially the powerful neighbor South Africa. Note the insistence that the 15 November events are not a coup – merely an intention to clean the government of criminal elements surrounding Mugabe. The African Union and the International Community frown on coups – a fact not lost on the military, which appears to have, for all intents and purposes, staged a smart coup; arguing that Mugabe is still their commander in chief, albeit one they have detained in his house.

Nothing has been heard of from Mugabe except a statement by South Africa President Jacob Zuma that Mugabe says he is ok though confined to his house.

The fate of Mugabe’s G40 allies may however turn out more tragically as G40 linked Ministers are being rounded up and detained, including senior intelligence and police officers.

Images of police officers being detained by the army are flooding the social media as well as heavily armed police officers blockading Mugabe’s office and streets in the Central Business District. Citizens who have interacted with the military say they are friendly and better than traffic police, hated for demanding bribes and chasing vendors in the city center.

What now for Zimbabwe?

The military will likely ask Mugabe to retire and hand over power to a non-military person that pleases the Generals. The new leadership will likely engage on a charm offensive to sell ‘New Zimbabwe’. This should be an easy sell, as Mugabe has few friends and with the British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson already hinting that this is a new beginning for Zimbabwe.

South Africa and China have been pushing Mugabe to organise an orderly transition, but his in-actions have now lead to a disgraceful and inglorious exit.

Meanwhile, the State Broadcaster has now switched sides: exalting the Generals as heroes, talking of a new dawn and independence.

The military is not oblivious to prevailing socio­-economic challenges and will seek to build a united political front by reaching out to the opposition and likewise the international community.

Zimbabwe may therefore not go for elections in 2018, as already scheduled, but will rather likely have a unity government of sorts.  The opposition had already expressed sympathy with Mnagangwa over the manner of his dismissal. Bringing Mnagangwa or whoever takes over to agree with the opposition may be an easy task.

It is likely that civil rights will strained in the short to medium term. And media will be under a tight and short leash, with journalists’ safety not necessarily guaranteed.

What does this mean for the long-suffering citizens?

Zimbabweans are torn apart: they have just seen two village bullies tussle and will be unsure whether to celebrate the defeat of one bully, if that means the victorious bully may come after them. He has done so in the past.

The language of the Generals has however been somewhat a sweet savor amidst a bitter pill of economic struggles and desperation. The Generals talked of bringing back economic prosperity, investment and democracy. Chiwenga even complained that the fights in ZANU PF have resulted in a lack of development, bemoaning that civilians are sleeping in bank lines because of cash shortages and that the cost of living is rising. He has struck a cord. Coups are rarely a happy moment, but Zimbabweans are saying: ‘Let the elite feed on each other, as long they don’t touch us.’  Another slogan is: ‘Anything other than Mugabe and Grace is better’.

As things stand, Zimbabwe enters a new fearful and uncertain era, but nevertheless without Mugabe and Grace. One problem down, next on the list: teaching Generals democracy and how to meet  citizens’ aspirations.

Rasheweat Mukunduis a Zimbabwean journalist and media expert.